As short as a decade ago, proven oil prices were trading at roughly $13 a barrel. Since
that time, prices have almost reached $150 a barrel. Had an individual purchased a futures contract at $15 a
barrel and increased his position, conservatively, by one contract every time the price of oil increased $10 a
barrel, liquidating his investment when prices hit $130, he would have accumulated $815,000 in accumulated
profits. Had that individual properly used candlestick patterns during this period, the accumulated profits
would have been a multiple several times greater.
The last decade analyzed by
candlesticks
Throughout this 10-year period of a bull market in oil, one can clearly identify candlestick
pattern formations which showed optimum points for entry into the market, as well as correctional periods.
These patterns would have not only have allowed traders to profit from this incredible decade-long bull market, but
they would have also been able to recognize correction periods, thereby allowing maximum profits.
Looking at the oil patterns
Innumerable bearish and bullish candlestick formation signals can be found throughout the last
10 years in the oil trading market. One such example can be pointed out on March 31 of 2008, when oil closed
down at a relative low of approximately $100 a barrel. The candlestick on that day produced a large black
body, signifying that trading ended below the opening price. This short-term downtrend continued with a close
below $100 a barrel on the following trading session. The trading range, however, on that day was far
narrower. On April 2nd, there was a significant upward movement in price resulting in a far higher closing
for oil prices.
These types of price movements, as represented on a candlestick chart, form of a pattern easily recognizable as the
formation of a Morning Star. Anyone familiar with candlestick patterns knows that this type of formation acts
as a signal towards a sharp appreciation in prices. An astute investor at this time would have purchased a
futures crude oil contract, knowing that the likelihood of further price increases was extremely strong. That
person would have been correct, and in two weeks, he or she would have accumulated a profit in excess of
$15,000.
Profitable patterns on a short timeline
More dramatic results are even possible in a shorter period of time through the proper use and
recognition of candlestick pattern formations. In mid-July of 2008, oil prices peaked at around $147 a
barrel. The date this occurred a Hangman candlestick pattern is clearly evident. This formation is a
bearish signal. An aggressive trader would have sold on that day and see prices fall to below $130 a barrel
within three days. A more conservative trader would have waited for the Doji confirmation, which occurred one
day after the Hangman appeared. But even that conservative investor would have made $15,000 versus the
aggressive trader's $17,000.
One can look over the last 10 years of the oil market and show that candlesticks price patterns are incredibly
reliable predictors of price changes, whether they are upwards or downwards.
|